Evil’s Week 5 Bets and Picks

I’ve noticed a pattern. Week 4 is always bad for my picks. My analysis doesn’t directly take injuries into account and I think they max out about week 4. One of these days when I have some of that magical and mystical stuff we call free time, I’m going to write some software to do a deeper analysis. Lack of free time is why I don’t watch college football. I already spend maximum time on the 32 teams of the NFL. If I started watching all six hunnit and fiddy teams in college I would need to be retired.

Another bet I would have put real money on went down the tubes last week. My boy’s team, Philly, were completely unable to stop Denver as they ran, passed, rolled unabated to the end zone. So much for the under bet there. Denver almost took it over all by themselves.

The only game I nailed last week was in Minnesota. Meh.

However, in the true failure category I was stunning. The machine was predicting Da Bears to go 15-1 this season. I can tell you now why that won’t happen. NO team who got beat by Detroit EVER managed to beat all the other teams they faced. Someone can look that stat up and tell me if I’m wrong, good luck. The worst part of this: I had to do a strength of victory analysis to decide if Detroit makes the playoffs. Of course, they don’t and I suspect Green Bay will fix it so I never have to do that calculation again this year.

In Tampa I guess it was too hot for Arizona to play. Hmm… maybe it was too humid. Either way, it was bad for them and worse for me.

There are two good bets this week. The computer still has faith in the idea that Jacksonville will pull their heads out of wherever they are now and put them back into their helmets. Also, it notes that while Denver has managed to really crush some teams out there, the teams they crushed were not Dallas. Peyton et al will not be surprised by this, but the Denver fan boys in Vegas will. Dallas will cover the spread by beating Denver. I also noticed that the Cincinnati fan boys appear to be in Vegas with money to lose. The line is 1 point. New England will roll over them like a Zamboni on ice.

My take:

Vegas this week:

E.W.

I blame everything that I got wrong last week on the impending shutdown of the federal government.

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