First a recap of Week 3:
Week 3
My predictions:
| Away | Home | Away | Home | Favorite | Line | O/U |
| Kansas City | Atlanta | 17 | 21 | Atlanta | 4 | 38 |
| Oakland | Buffalo | 17 | 20 | Buffalo | 3 | 37 |
| Tampa Bay | Chicago | 17 | 24 | Chicago | 7 | 41 |
| Carolina | Minnesota | 20 | 20 | Carolina | 0 | 40 |
| Miami | New England | 19 | 24 | New England | 5 | 43 |
| Cincinnati | NY Giants | 26 | 17 | Cincinnati | 9 | 43 |
| Houston | Tennessee | 17 | 24 | Tennessee | 7 | 41 |
| Arizona | Washington | 20 | 2A6 | Washington | 6 | 46 |
| New Orleans | Denver | 23 | 20 | New Orleans | 3 | 43 |
| Detroit | San Francisco | 20 | 26 | San Francisco | 6 | 46 |
| St. Louis | Seattle | 20 | 27 | Seattle | 7 | 47 |
| Cleveland | Baltimore | 20 | 20 | Baltimore | 0 | 40 |
| Jacksonville | Indianapolis | 17 | 24 | Indianapolis | 7 | 41 |
| Pittsburgh | Philadelphia | 17 | 20 | Philadelphia | 3 | 37 |
| Dallas | Green Bay | 23 | 17 | Dallas | 6 | 40 |
| NY Jets | San Diego | 17 | 27 | San Diego | 10 | 44 |
Vegas predictions:
| Away | Home | Favorite | Line | O/U | Away | Home |
| Kansas City | Atlanta | Atlanta | 5.5 | 36.0 | 15.3 | 20.8 |
| Oakland | Buffalo | Buffalo | 9.0 | 36.5 | 13.8 | 22.8 |
| Tampa Bay | Chicago | Chicago | 3.0 | 35.5 | 16.3 | 19.3 |
| Carolina | Minnesota | Minnesota | 3.0 | 37.5 | 17.3 | 20.3 |
| Miami | New England | New England | 12.5 | 36.0 | 11.8 | 24.3 |
| Cincinnati | NY Giants | NY Giants | 13.0 | 41.5 | 14.3 | 27.3 |
| Houston | Tennessee | Tennessee | 4.5 | 39.0 | 17.3 | 21.8 |
| Arizona | Washington | Washington | 3.0 | 42.5 | 19.8 | 22.8 |
| New Orleans | Denver | Denver | 5.0 | 51.0 | 23.0 | 28.0 |
| Detroit | San Francisco | San Francisco | 4.0 | 46.0 | 21.0 | 25.0 |
| St. Louis | Seattle | Seattle | 9.5 | 44.0 | 17.3 | 26.8 |
| Cleveland | Baltimore | Baltimore | 2.5 | 38.5 | 18.0 | 20.5 |
| Jacksonville | Indianapolis | Indianapolis | 5.0 | 42.0 | 18.5 | 23.5 |
| Pittsburgh | Philadelphia | Philadelphia | 3.0 | 44.5 | 20.8 | 23.8 |
| Dallas | Green Bay | Dallas | 3.0 | 51.0 | 27.0 | 24.0 |
| NY Jets | San Diego | San Diego | 9.0 | 44.0 | 17.5 | 26.5 |
Bets:
| Away | Home | Bet | O/U |
| Kansas City | Atlanta | Kansas City | Over |
| Oakland | Buffalo | Oakland | Over |
| Tampa Bay | Chicago | Chicago | Over |
| Carolina | Minnesota | Carolina | Over |
| Miami | New England | Miami | Over |
| Cincinnati | NY Giants | Cincinnati | Over |
| Houston | Tennessee | Tennessee | Over |
| Arizona | Washington | Washington | Over |
| New Orleans | Denver | New Orleans | Under |
| Detroit | San Francisco | San Francisco | None |
| St. Louis | Seattle | St. Louis | Over |
| Cleveland | Baltimore | Cleveland | Over |
| Jacksonville | Indianapolis | Indianapolis | Under |
| Pittsburgh | Philadelphia | None | Under |
| Dallas | Green Bay | Dallas | Under |
| NY Jets | San Diego | San Diego | None |
Good bets:
Cincinnati vs Giants – Vegas is so far off from the computer prediction that I checked my math here and then the depth chart. It’s true that the Giants are a better team but there is a mismatch here. Even if the Browns don’t win, they’ll cover this spread.
Dallas vs Green Bay will go under. GB has a defense and after last Monday, I’m betting that the Dallas D coordinator will have kicked some butts this week. I expect they will be awake tomorrow for the game.
The outcome:
| Away | Home | Winner | Away | Home | Bet | O/U |
| Kansas City | Atlanta | Atlanta | 14 | 38 | Atlanta | Over |
| Oakland | Buffalo | Buffalo | 23 | 24 | Oakland | Over |
| Tampa Bay | Chicago | Tampa Bay | 27 | 24 | Tampa Bay | Over |
| Carolina | Minnesota | Minnesota | 10 | 20 | Minnesota | Under |
| Miami | New England | Miami | 38 | 13 | Miami | Over |
| Cincinnati | NY Giants | NY Giants | 23 | 26 | Cincinnati | Over |
| Houston | Tennessee | Tennessee | 12 | 31 | Tennessee | Over |
| Arizona | Washington | Washington | 17 | 24 | Washington | Under |
| New Orleans | Denver | Denver | 32 | 34 | New Orleans | Over |
| Detroit | San Francisco | San Francisco | 13 | 31 | San Francisco | Under |
| St. Louis | Seattle | Seattle | 13 | 37 | Seattle | Over |
| Cleveland | Baltimore | Baltimore | 10 | 28 | Baltimore | Under |
| Jacksonville | Indianapolis | Jacksonville | 23 | 21 | Jacksonville | Over |
| Pittsburgh | Philadelphia | Philadelphia | 6 | 15 | Philadelphia | Under |
| Dallas | Green Bay | Dallas | 27 | 16 | Dallas | Under |
| NY Jets | San Diego | San Diego | 29 | 48 | San Diego | Over |
I called 10 games, not great but not bad, but I did call both good bets. Actually for two weeks running I’ve called the bets unusually well.
On to week 4:
Week 4
My predictions:
| Away | Home | Away | Home | Favorite | Line | O/U |
| Atlanta | Carolina | 20 | 17 | Atlanta | 3 | 37 |
| Cleveland | Cincinnati | 23 | 26 | Cincinnati | 3 | 49 |
| Houston | Jacksonville | 16 | 27 | Jacksonville | 11 | 43 |
| Denver | Kansas City | 20 | 20 | Kansas City | 0 | 40 |
| San Francisco | New Orleans | 20 | 27 | New Orleans | 7 | 47 |
| Arizona | NY Jets | 20 | 20 | NY Jets | 0 | 40 |
| Green Bay | Tampa Bay | 20 | 20 | Tampa Bay | 0 | 40 |
| Minnesota | Tennessee | 17 | 20 | Tennessee | 3 | 37 |
| San Diego | Oakland | 27 | 17 | San Diego | 10 | 44 |
| Buffalo | St. Louis | 20 | 20 | St. Louis | 0 | 40 |
| Washington | Dallas | 17 | 24 | Dallas | 7 | 41 |
| Philadelphia | Chicago | 17 | 20 | Chicago | 3 | 37 |
| Baltimore | Pittsburgh | 17 | 24 | Pittsburgh | 7 | 41 |
Vegas Predictions:
| Away | Home | Favorite | Line | O/U | Away | Home |
| Atlanta | Carolina | Carolina | 7.0 | 39.0 | 16.0 | 23.0 |
| Cleveland | Cincinnati | Cincinnati | 3.0 | 44.5 | 20.8 | 23.8 |
| Houston | Jacksonville | Jacksonville | 7.0 | 43.0 | 18.0 | 25.0 |
| Denver | Kansas City | Denver | 9.5 | 46.5 | 28.0 | 18.5 |
| San Francisco | New Orleans | New Orleans | 4.5 | 48.0 | 21.8 | 26.3 |
| Arizona | NY Jets | NY Jets | 1.0 | 44.5 | 21.8 | 22.8 |
| Green Bay | Tampa Bay | Tampa Bay | 1.5 | 43.0 | 20.8 | 22.3 |
| Minnesota | Tennessee | Tennessee | 3.0 | 36.0 | 16.5 | 19.5 |
| San Diego | Oakland | San Diego | 8.0 | 45.5 | 26.8 | 18.8 |
| Buffalo | St. Louis | Buffalo | 8.0 | 43.0 | 25.5 | 17.5 |
| Washington | Dallas | Dallas | 11.0 | 46.0 | 17.5 | 28.5 |
| Philadelphia | Chicago | Philadelphia | 3.0 | 39.5 | 21.3 | 18.3 |
| Baltimore | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | 5.5 | 34.0 | 14.3 | 19.8 |
Bets:
| Away | Home | Bet | O/U |
| Atlanta | Carolina | Atlanta | Under |
| Cleveland | Cincinnati | None | Over |
| Houston | Jacksonville | Jacksonville | None |
| Denver | Kansas City | Kansas City | Under |
| San Francisco | New Orleans | New Orleans | Under |
| Arizona | NY Jets | Arizona | Under |
| Green Bay | Tampa Bay | Green Bay | Under |
| Minnesota | Tennessee | None | Over |
| San Diego | Oakland | San Diego | Under |
| Buffalo | St. Louis | St. Louis | Under |
| Washington | Dallas | Washington | Under |
| Philadelphia | Chicago | Chicago | Under |
| Baltimore | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | Over |
Good Bets:
There ain’t any. Which sucks, but I guess I don’t have time for watching football anyway. Sadly racing will be dull today too. The only actual racing at the Kansas City track happens in the pits. Whoever is in front after the last pit will win by well over 2 seconds. I hate these kind of tracks, I don’t understand why NASCAR loves them. If you’re a fan, you love the other kind of tracks: Bristol, Martinsville, Richmond, Darlington. NASCAR if you’re going to build giant tracks, copy Talladega or Daytona, at least the races there happen ON the track.
Team rankings again from best to Oakland:
New England
San Diego
Indianapolis
Pittsburgh
Jacksonville
Chicago
Dallas
Seattle
Green Bay
Philadelphia
NY Giants
Baltimore
Minnesota
Denver
Washington
New Orleans
Cincinnati
Arizona
Carolina
Kansas City
Tampa Bay
Tennessee
NY Jets
Buffalo
Cleveland
Houston
Miami
Atlanta
St. Louis
Detroit
San Francisco
Oakland
Nothing changed this week, despite the ass whoopin’ New England got, in their own dojo, by one of the worst teams in NFL. That was like seeing Jason Anderson show up at Jet Li’s house and beat the hell out of him.
E.W.
It must be awful to get beat like New England did and then get a bye. An extra whole week to go over everything that went wrong. Of course, so much went wrong, maybe two weeks can cover all of it…