First a recap of Preseason Week 4 and Regular Season Week 1:
Preseason Week 4
My predictions:
| Away | Home | Away | Home | Favorite | Line | O/U |
| Detroit | Buffalo | 17 | 24 | Buffalo | 7 | 41 |
| NY Jets | Philadelphia | 17 | 20 | Philadelphia | 3 | 37 |
| Atlanta | Baltimore | 20 | 20 | Baltimore | 0 | 40 |
| St. Louis | Kansas City | 20 | 26 | Kansas City | 6 | 46 |
| New England | NY Giants | 24 | 17 | New England | 7 | 41 |
| Cincinnati | Indianapolis | 20 | 27 | Indianapolis | 7 | 47 |
| Jacksonville | Washington | 17 | 24 | Washington | 7 | 41 |
| Carolina | Pittsburgh | 17 | 23 | Pittsburgh | 6 | 40 |
| Tennessee | Green Bay | 20 | 20 | Green Bay | 0 | 40 |
| Chicago | Cleveland | 20 | 17 | Chicago | 3 | 37 |
| Minnesota | Dallas | 17 | 24 | Dallas | 7 | 41 |
| Miami | New Orleans | 20 | 17 | Miami | 3 | 37 |
| Tampa Bay | Houston | 20 | 23 | Houston | 3 | 43 |
| Denver | Arizona | 26 | 27 | Arizona | 1 | 53 |
| San Diego | San Francisco | 27 | 17 | San Diego | 10 | 44 |
| Oakland | Seattle | 16 | 27 | Seattle | 11 | 43 |
Vegas predictions:
| Away | Home | Favorite | Line | O/U | Away | Home |
| Detroit | Buffalo | Buffalo | 3.0 | 33.5 | 15.3 | 18.3 |
| NY Jets | Philadelphia | Philadelphia | 3.0 | 35.5 | 16.3 | 19.3 |
| Atlanta | Baltimore | Baltimore | 2.5 | 33.0 | 15.3 | 17.8 |
| St. Louis | Kansas City | Kansas City | 5.0 | 34.0 | 14.5 | 19.5 |
| New England | NY Giants | NY Giants | 2.5 | 35.0 | 16.3 | 18.8 |
| Cincinnati | Indianapolis | Indianapolis | 3.0 | 34.5 | 15.8 | 18.8 |
| Jacksonville | Washington | Washington | 3.0 | 34.0 | 15.5 | 18.5 |
| Carolina | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | 3.5 | 35.0 | 15.8 | 19.3 |
| Tennessee | Green Bay | Tennessee | 6.5 | 36.0 | 21.3 | 14.8 |
| Chicago | Cleveland | Cleveland | 3.0 | 38.0 | 17.5 | 20.5 |
| Minnesota | Dallas | Dallas | 3.0 | 34.0 | 15.5 | 18.5 |
| Miami | New Orleans | New Orleans | 1.0 | 35.0 | 17.0 | 18.0 |
| Tampa Bay | Houston | Houston | 0.0 | 36.5 | 18.3 | 18.3 |
| Denver | Arizona | Arizona | 3.0 | 37.5 | 17.3 | 20.3 |
| San Diego | San Francisco | San Francisco | 2.5 | 35.5 | 16.5 | 19.0 |
| Oakland | Seattle | Seattle | 3.0 | 36.0 | 16.5 | 19.5 |
Bets:
| Away | Home | Bet | O/U |
| Detroit | Buffalo | Buffalo | Over |
| NY Jets | Philadelphia | None | Over |
| Atlanta | Baltimore | Atlanta | Over |
| St. Louis | Kansas City | Kansas City | Over |
| New England | NY Giants | New England | Over |
| Cincinnati | Indianapolis | Indianapolis | Over |
| Jacksonville | Washington | Washington | Over |
| Carolina | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | Over |
| Tennessee | Green Bay | Green Bay | Over |
| Chicago | Cleveland | Chicago | Under |
| Minnesota | Dallas | Dallas | Over |
| Miami | New Orleans | Miami | Over |
| Tampa Bay | Houston | Houston | Over |
| Denver | Arizona | Denver | Over |
| San Diego | San Francisco | San Diego | Over |
| Oakland | Seattle | Seattle | Over |
Good bets, if you’re nuts:
Arizona vs. Denver will go over
San Diego will stomp San Fran, thus covering the spread. Makes me wonder if Vegas has a typo on their web site.
Outcome:
| Away | Home | Winner | Away | Home | Bet | O/U |
| Detroit | Buffalo | Detroit | 14 | 6 | Detroit | Under |
| NY Jets | Philadelphia | NY Jets | 27 | 20 | NY Jets | Over |
| Atlanta | Baltimore | Atlanta | 10 | 9 | Atlanta | Under |
| St. Louis | Kansas City | Kansas City | 17 | 21 | St. Louis | Over |
| New England | NY Giants | NY Giants | 14 | 19 | NY Giants | Under |
| Cincinnati | Indianapolis | Cincinnati | 27 | 7 | Cincinnati | Under |
| Jacksonville | Washington | Jacksonville | 24 | 3 | Jacksonville | Under |
| Carolina | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | 16 | 19 | Carolina | Push |
| Tennessee | Green Bay | Tennessee | 23 | 21 | Green Bay | Over |
| Chicago | Cleveland | Chicago | 16 | 10 | Chicago | Under |
| Minnesota | Dallas | Dallas | 10 | 16 | Dallas | Under |
| Miami | New Orleans | Miami | 14 | 10 | Miami | Under |
| Tampa Bay | Houston | Tampa Bay | 16 | 6 | Tampa Bay | Under |
| Denver | Arizona | Denver | 28 | 14 | Denver | Over |
| San Diego | San Francisco | San Diego | 20 | 17 | San Diego | Over |
| Oakland | Seattle | Seattle | 16 | 23 | Seattle | Over |
Well, I only called 7 games. However, I did call both good bets.
Week 1
My predictions:
| Away | Home | Away | Home | Favorite | Line | O/U |
| Washington | NY Giants | 17 | 20 | NY Giants | 3 | 37 |
| NY Jets | Miami | 17 | 17 | Miami | 0 | 34 |
| Detroit | Atlanta | 20 | 27 | Atlanta | 7 | 47 |
| Jacksonville | Tennessee | 24 | 23 | Jacksonville | 1 | 47 |
| Tampa Bay | New Orleans | 17 | 17 | New Orleans | 0 | 34 |
| St. Louis | Philadelphia | 20 | 20 | Philadelphia | 0 | 40 |
| Houston | Pittsburgh | 17 | 24 | Pittsburgh | 7 | 41 |
| Kansas City | New England | 17 | 27 | New England | 10 | 44 |
| Cincinnati | Baltimore | 20 | 20 | Baltimore | 0 | 40 |
| Seattle | Buffalo | 24 | 20 | Seattle | 4 | 44 |
| Dallas | Cleveland | 27 | 17 | Dallas | 10 | 44 |
| Arizona | San Francisco | 20 | 20 | San Francisco | 0 | 40 |
| Carolina | San Diego | 20 | 24 | San Diego | 4 | 44 |
| Chicago | Indianapolis | 20 | 24 | Indianapolis | 4 | 44 |
| Minnesota | Green Bay | 17 | 20 | Green Bay | 3 | 37 |
| Denver | Oakland | 20 | 17 | Denver | 3 | 37 |
Vegas predictions:
| Away | Home | Favorite | Line | O/U | Away | Home |
| Washington | NY Giants | NY Giants | 3.5 | 41.0 | 18.8 | 22.3 |
| NY Jets | Miami | NY Jets | 3.0 | 36.5 | 19.8 | 16.8 |
| Detroit | Atlanta | Detroit | 3.0 | 41.0 | 22.0 | 19.0 |
| Jacksonville | Tennessee | Jacksonville | 3.0 | 37.0 | 20.0 | 17.0 |
| Tampa Bay | New Orleans | New Orleans | 3.5 | 43.0 | 19.8 | 23.3 |
| St. Louis | Philadelphia | Philadelphia | 7.0 | 44.0 | 18.5 | 25.5 |
| Houston | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | 6.5 | 43.5 | 18.5 | 25.0 |
| Kansas City | New England | New England | 16.5 | 46.5 | 15.0 | 31.5 |
| Cincinnati | Baltimore | Cincinnati | 1.0 | 39.5 | 20.3 | 19.3 |
| Seattle | Buffalo | Buffalo | 0.0 | 39.5 | 19.8 | 19.8 |
| Dallas | Cleveland | Dallas | 4.0 | 49.0 | 26.5 | 22.5 |
| Arizona | San Francisco | Arizona | 3.0 | 41.5 | 22.3 | 19.3 |
| Carolina | San Diego | San Diego | 9.5 | 42.5 | 16.5 | 26.0 |
| Chicago | Indianapolis | Indianapolis | 9.5 | 44.0 | 17.3 | 26.8 |
| Minnesota | Green Bay | Green Bay | 3.0 | 38.5 | 17.8 | 20.8 |
| Denver | Oakland | Oakland | 3.0 | 41.5 | 19.3 | 22.3 |
Bets:
| Away | Home | Bet | O/U |
| Washington | NY Giants | Washington | Under |
| NY Jets | Miami | Miami | Under |
| Detroit | Atlanta | Atlanta | Over |
| Jacksonville | Tennessee | Tennessee | Over |
| Tampa Bay | New Orleans | Tampa Bay | Under |
| St. Louis | Philadelphia | St. Louis | Under |
| Houston | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | Under |
| Kansas City | New England | Kansas City | Under |
| Cincinnati | Baltimore | Baltimore | Over |
| Seattle | Buffalo | Seattle | Over |
| Dallas | Cleveland | Dallas | Under |
| Arizona | San Francisco | San Francisco | Under |
| Carolina | San Diego | Carolina | Over |
| Chicago | Indianapolis | Chicago | None |
| Minnesota | Green Bay | None | Under |
| Denver | Oakland | Denver | Under |
Good bets:
The computer didn’t flag any. This is a bad sign, either I have a bug in my software or the average Joe in Vegas is getting smarter…
Outcome:
| Away | Home | Winner | Away | Home | Bet | O/U |
| Washington | NY Giants | NY Giants | 7 | 16 | NY Giants | Under |
| NY Jets | Miami | NY Jets | 20 | 14 | NY Jets | Under |
| Detroit | Atlanta | Atlanta | 21 | 34 | Atlanta | Over |
| Jacksonville | Tennessee | Tennessee | 10 | 17 | Tennessee | Under |
| Tampa Bay | New Orleans | New Orleans | 20 | 24 | New Orleans | Over |
| St. Louis | Philadelphia | Philadelphia | 3 | 38 | Philadelphia | Under |
| Houston | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | 17 | 38 | Pittsburgh | Over |
| Kansas City | New England | New England | 10 | 17 | Kansas City | Under |
| Cincinnati | Baltimore | Baltimore | 10 | 17 | Baltimore | Under |
| Seattle | Buffalo | Buffalo | 10 | 34 | Buffalo | Over |
| Dallas | Cleveland | Dallas | 28 | 10 | Dallas | Under |
| Arizona | San Francisco | Arizona | 23 | 13 | Arizona | Under |
| Carolina | San Diego | Carolina | 26 | 24 | Carolina | Over |
| Chicago | Indianapolis | Chicago | 29 | 13 | Chicago | Under |
| Minnesota | Green Bay | Green Bay | 19 | 24 | Green Bay | Over |
| Denver | Oakland | Denver | 41 | 14 | Denver | Over |
I called 10 games, not bad, but not great either. I called better than half the bets, 18 of 30, that would put me in the black.
Week 2
My predictions:
| Away | Home | Away | Home | Favorite | Line | O/U |
| Chicago | Carolina | 20 | 17 | Chicago | 3 | 37 |
| Tennessee | Cincinnati | 20 | 27 | Cincinnati | 7 | 47 |
| Green Bay | Detroit | 26 | 20 | Green Bay | 6 | 46 |
| Buffalo | Jacksonville | 10 | 27 | Jacksonville | 17 | 37 |
| Oakland | Kansas City | 19 | 26 | Kansas City | 7 | 45 |
| Indianapolis | Minnesota | 20 | 23 | Minnesota | 3 | 43 |
| NY Giants | St. Louis | 27 | 17 | NY Giants | 10 | 44 |
| New Orleans | Washington | 17 | 23 | Washington | 6 | 40 |
| San Francisco | Seattle | 17 | 27 | Seattle | 10 | 44 |
| Atlanta | Tampa Bay | 17 | 17 | Tampa Bay | 0 | 34 |
| Miami | Arizona | 20 | 27 | Arizona | 7 | 47 |
| San Diego | Denver | 23 | 17 | San Diego | 6 | 40 |
| Baltimore | Houston | 20 | 20 | Houston | 0 | 40 |
| New England | NY Jets | 24 | 20 | New England | 4 | 44 |
| Pittsburgh | Cleveland | 17 | 17 | Pittsburgh | 0 | 34 |
| Philadelphia | Dallas | 23 | 27 | Dallas | 4 | 50 |
Vegas predictions:
| Away | Home | Favorite | Line | O/U | Away | Home |
| Chicago | Carolina | Carolina | 3.0 | 37.5 | 17.3 | 20.3 |
| Tennessee | Cincinnati | Cincinnati | 1.5 | 37.5 | 18.0 | 19.5 |
| Green Bay | Detroit | Green Bay | 3.0 | 45.0 | 24.0 | 21.0 |
| Buffalo | Jacksonville | Jacksonville | 6.0 | 38.0 | 16.0 | 22.0 |
| Oakland | Kansas City | Kansas City | 4.0 | 35.5 | 15.8 | 19.8 |
| Indianapolis | Minnesota | Indianapolis | 2.0 | 43.5 | 22.8 | 20.8 |
| NY Giants | St. Louis | NY Giants | 8.5 | 42.5 | 25.5 | 17.0 |
| New Orleans | Washington | Washington | 0.0 | 42.5 | 21.3 | 21.3 |
| San Francisco | Seattle | Seattle | 8.0 | 39.0 | 15.5 | 23.5 |
| Atlanta | Tampa Bay | Tampa Bay | 8.0 | 38.0 | 15.0 | 23.0 |
| Miami | Arizona | Arizona | 7.0 | 39.5 | 16.3 | 23.3 |
| San Diego | Denver | San Diego | 2.0 | 45.5 | 23.8 | 21.8 |
| Baltimore | Houston | Houston | 4.5 | 37.5 | 16.5 | 21.0 |
| New England | NY Jets | NY Jets | 2.5 | 37.0 | 17.3 | 19.8 |
| Pittsburgh | Cleveland | Pittsburgh | 6.0 | 44.5 | 25.3 | 19.3 |
| Philadelphia | Dallas | Dallas | 6.5 | 47.0 | 20.3 | 26.8 |
Bets:
| Away | Home | Bet | O/U |
| Chicago | Carolina | Chicago | Under |
| Tennessee | Cincinnati | Cincinnati | Over |
| Green Bay | Detroit | Green Bay | Over |
| Buffalo | Jacksonville | Jacksonville | Under |
| Oakland | Kansas City | Kansas City | Over |
| Indianapolis | Minnesota | Minnesota | Under |
| NY Giants | St. Louis | NY Giants | Over |
| New Orleans | Washington | Washington | Under |
| San Francisco | Seattle | Seattle | Over |
| Atlanta | Tampa Bay | Atlanta | Under |
| Miami | Arizona | None | Over |
| San Diego | Denver | San Diego | Under |
| Baltimore | Houston | Baltimore | Over |
| New England | NY Jets | New England | Over |
| Pittsburgh | Cleveland | Cleveland | Under |
| Philadelphia | Dallas | Philadelphia | Over |
Good bets:
Buffalo vs. Jacksonville – take Jacks, as Buffalo will find themselves unable to score against the Jacks.
Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland will go under. The boys in Vegas are a little too optimistic about Pittsburgh’s offense.
E.W.
Getting spreadsheets in the blog is gettin’ easier, but it still seems like more work thanit should be.