…And the ones for the Hall of Fame game and the first three preseason weeks. I know what you’re thinking, “Yeah, sure, you’re picking the games AFTER they played…” If you will look at the data, I think my honesty speaks for itself… Ugh, I sure hope these results are because all the coaches finally took my advice and are keeping their starters bubble wrapped safely in the locker room and fielding anybody they think might be a diamond in the rough.
Seriously, if I was a coach, my starters might go out there for 3 or 4 plays with these instructions: If you think that you might break a nail, DROP THE BALL; we ain’t playing for money here. After that, I’d have the Mom of the kid from the hotdog stand, you know, Doris “The Pocket” Tidwell, as left tackle, the peanut tosser would be snapping the ball and the hotdog kid himself would be the QB. My receiver would be that kid I saw outrun the police car in the mall parking lot. “Hey kid… do you think you could catch a football while you’re running like that?” The water boy would be wide right…
I don’t know what the rules are about bringing 9 to 12 hundred potential players to the game, but I figure if you sift through that many wannabe football players you might find that diamond. You know the kid you send out, “Ok I don’t care about accuracy I just wanna see how far you can throw,” that comes back, “Um, I’m sorry coach. I’ll go run out there in the parking lot and find that ball…”
“That’s ok kid, we’ll get another ball… um… what’s your name?”
Here’s the data:
Hall of Fame Week:
My predictions:
| Away | Home | Favorite | Line | O/U | ||
| Indianapolis | Washington | 20 | 23 | Washington | 3 | 43 |
Vegas line:
| Favorite | Line | O/U | Away | Home |
| Washington | 4.5 | 31.5 | 13.5 | 18.0 |
Bets:
Indianapolis Over
Good bets: (There ain’t any really, you’re insane if you’re betting the preseason…)
Over on Indianapolis vs Washington
Outcome:
| Winner | Away | Home | Bet | O/U |
| Washington | 16 | 30 | Washington | Over |
So YAY! On the first week, I have a 100% pick rate, I called the good bet right, advised not taking the points bet. It’s all downhill from here. Seriously downhill. Steeply downhill…
Preseason Week 1
My predictions:
| Away | Home | Favorite | Line | O/U | ||
| New Orleans | Arizona | 24 | 27 | Arizona | 3 | 51 |
| Kansas City | Chicago | 17 | 20 | Chicago | 3 | 37 |
| Baltimore | New England | 17 | 27 | New England | 10 | 44 |
| NY Jets | Cleveland | 17 | 17 | Cleveland | 0 | 34 |
| NY Giants | Detroit | 26 | 17 | NY Giants | 9 | 43 |
| San Francisco | Oakland | 20 | 17 | San Francisco | 3 | 37 |
| Seattle | Minnesota | 20 | 20 | Minnesota | 0 | 40 |
| Philadelphia | Pittsburgh | 17 | 27 | Pittsburgh | 10 | 44 |
| Dallas | San Diego | 20 | 24 | San Diego | 4 | 44 |
| Denver | Houston | 20 | 27 | Houston | 7 | 47 |
| St. Louis | Tennessee | 20 | 20 | Tennessee | 0 | 40 |
| Indianapolis | Carolina | 26 | 17 | Indianapolis | 9 | 43 |
| Atlanta | Jacksonville | 10 | 27 | Jacksonville | 17 | 37 |
| Tampa Bay | Miami | 17 | 17 | Miami | 0 | 34 |
| Buffalo | Washington | 20 | 20 | Washington | 0 | 40 |
| Cincinnati | Green Bay | 20 | 20 | Cincinnati | 0 | 40 |
Vegas line:
| Favorite | Line | O/U | Away | Home |
| Arizona | 2.5 | 35.0 | 16.3 | 18.8 |
| Chicago | 3.5 | 34.0 | 15.3 | 18.8 |
| New England | 3.5 | 33.5 | 15.0 | 18.5 |
| Cleveland | 5.0 | 35.0 | 15.0 | 20.0 |
| Detroit | 3.0 | 31.5 | 14.3 | 17.3 |
| Oakland | 1.0 | 34.0 | 16.5 | 17.5 |
| Minnesota | 3.0 | 34.0 | 15.5 | 18.5 |
| Philadelphia | 1.5 | 33.5 | 17.5 | 16.0 |
| San Diego | 3.0 | 35.5 | 16.3 | 19.3 |
| Houston | 3.0 | 34.5 | 15.8 | 18.8 |
| Tennessee | 3.0 | 33.5 | 15.3 | 18.3 |
| Carolina | 4.0 | 35.5 | 15.8 | 19.8 |
| Jacksonville | 4.0 | 34.0 | 15.0 | 19.0 |
| Miami | 1.5 | 31.0 | 14.8 | 16.3 |
| Washington | 6.0 | 36.0 | 15.0 | 21.0 |
| Green Bay | 3.0 | 35.0 | 16.0 | 19.0 |
Bets:
Arizona Over
Kansas City Over
New England Over
NY Jets Under
NY Giants Over
San Francisco Over
Seattle Over
Pittsburgh Over
San Diego Over
Houston Over
St. Louis Over
Indianapolis Over
Jacksonville Over
Tampa Bay Over
Buffalo Over
Cincinnati Over
Good bets:
Over on New Orleans vs Arizona
Over on Baltimore vs New England
NY Giants will stomp Detroit covering the spread and the game will go over
Pittsburgh will stomp Philly and the game will go over
Indianapolis will stomp Carolina covering the spread, makes me cry writing that…
Jacksonville
Outcome:
| Winner | Away | Home | Bet | O/U |
| New Orleans | 24 | 10 | New Orleans | Under |
| Kansas City | 24 | 20 | Kansas City | Over |
| Baltimore | 16 | 15 | Baltimore | Under |
| NY Jets | 24 | 20 | NY Jets | Over |
| Detroit | 10 | 13 | Push | Under |
| Oakland | 6 | 18 | Oakland | Under |
| Seattle | 34 | 17 | Seattle | Over |
| Pittsburgh | 10 | 16 | Pittsburgh | Under |
| San Diego | 17 | 31 | San Diego | Over |
| Houston | 16 | 19 | Push | Over |
| Tennessee | 13 | 34 | Tennessee | Over |
| Carolina | 20 | 23 | Indianapolis | Over |
| Jacksonville | 17 | 20 | Atlanta | Over |
| Tampa Bay | 17 | 6 | Tampa Bay | Under |
| Washington | 14 | 17 | Buffalo | Under |
| Cincinnati | 20 | 17 | Cincinnati | Over |
So, I called 7 out of 16 games and 3 out of 9 bets. It was a good week. No, really it was. Check out next week…
Preseason Week 2
My predictions:
| Away | Home | Favorite | Line | O/U | ||
| Carolina | Philadelphia | 20 | 20 | Carolina | 0 | 40 |
| Pittsburgh | Buffalo | 24 | 20 | Pittsburgh | 4 | 44 |
| Oakland | Tennessee | 17 | 26 | Tennessee | 9 | 43 |
| Green Bay | San Francisco | 20 | 20 | Green Bay | 0 | 40 |
| Chicago | Seattle | 20 | 23 | Seattle | 3 | 43 |
| Dallas | Denver | 23 | 20 | Dallas | 3 | 43 |
| San Diego | St. Louis | 24 | 23 | San Diego | 1 | 47 |
| Arizona | Kansas City | 20 | 26 | Kansas City | 6 | 46 |
| Houston | New Orleans | 20 | 24 | New Orleans | 4 | 44 |
| Minnesota | Baltimore | 20 | 20 | Baltimore | 0 | 40 |
| Miami | Jacksonville | 19 | 27 | Jacksonville | 8 | 46 |
| Indianapolis | Atlanta | 27 | 17 | Indianapolis | 10 | 44 |
| Washington | NY Jets | 17 | 20 | NY Jets | 3 | 37 |
| New England | Tampa Bay | 24 | 17 | New England | 7 | 41 |
| Detroit | Cincinnati | 17 | 27 | Cincinnati | 10 | 44 |
| Cleveland | NY Giants | 20 | 20 | NY Giants | 0 | 40 |
Vegas line:
| Favorite | Line | O/U | Away | Home |
| Philadelphia | 3.5 | 36.5 | 16.5 | 20.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 1.0 | 33.0 | 17.0 | 16.0 |
| Tennessee | 4.0 | 35.5 | 15.8 | 19.8 |
| San Francisco | 2.5 | 35.0 | 16.3 | 18.8 |
| Chicago | 3.0 | 35.0 | 19.0 | 16.0 |
| Denver | 2.5 | 37.0 | 17.3 | 19.8 |
| St. Louis | 4.0 | 36.0 | 16.0 | 20.0 |
| Kansas City | 1.5 | 38.0 | 18.3 | 19.8 |
| New Orleans | 3.0 | 37.5 | 17.3 | 20.3 |
| Baltimore | 1.5 | 34.0 | 16.3 | 17.8 |
| Jacksonville | 3.5 | 33.5 | 15.0 | 18.5 |
| Atlanta | 3.0 | 37.5 | 17.3 | 20.3 |
| NY Jets | 3.0 | 36.5 | 16.8 | 19.8 |
| Tampa Bay | 3.0 | 33.5 | 15.3 | 18.3 |
| Cincinnati | 3.5 | 35.5 | 16.0 | 19.5 |
| NY Giants | 0.0 | 36.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
Bets:
Carolina Over
Pittsburgh Over
Tennessee Over
Green Bay Over
Seattle Over
Dallas Over
San Diego Over
Kansas City Over
New Orleans Over
Minnesota Over
Jacksonville Over
Indianapolis Over
Over Washington vs NY Jets
New England Over
Cincinnati Over
NY Giants Over
Good Bets:
Over Pittsburgh vs Buffalo
Over San Diego vs St. Louis
Over Miami vs Jacksonville
Indianapolis will stomp Atlanta and cover the spread (Why does Vegas hate Indy? Their receivers missing fingers? QB have a broken leg?)
Outcome:
| Winner | Away | Home | Bet | O/U |
| Philadelphia | 13 | 24 | Philadelphia | Over |
| Buffalo | 21 | 24 | Buffalo | Over |
| Tennessee | 16 | 17 | Oakland | Under |
| San Francisco | 6 | 34 | San Francisco | Over |
| Seattle | 26 | 29 | Seattle | Over |
| Denver | 13 | 23 | Denver | Under |
| St. Louis | 6 | 7 | San Diego | Under |
| Arizona | 27 | 17 | Arizona | Over |
| Houston | 31 | 27 | Houston | Over |
| Minnesota | 23 | 15 | Minnesota | Over |
| Miami | 19 | 14 | Miami | Under |
| Indianapolis | 16 | 9 | Indianapolis | Under |
| Washington | 13 | 10 | Washington | Under |
| Tampa Bay | 10 | 27 | Tampa Bay | Over |
| Detroit | 27 | 10 | Detroit | Over |
| NY Giants | 34 | 37 | NY Giants | Over |
Well, the betting improved… 50%, I’ll take it. And with any luck you stopped reading at that point and didn’t notice that I called only 4 games…
What happened to St. Louis and San Diego’s offense? Did San Diego’s offense miss the plane to San Diego?
Preseason Week 3
My predictions:
| Away | Home | Favorite | Line | O/U | ||
| San Francisco | Chicago | 17 | 27 | Chicago | 10 | 44 |
| Philadelphia | New England | 17 | 27 | New England | 10 | 44 |
| Tennessee | Atlanta | 20 | 20 | Atlanta | 0 | 40 |
| Houston | Dallas | 17 | 24 | Dallas | 7 | 41 |
| Green Bay | Denver | 20 | 20 | Denver | 0 | 40 |
| Cleveland | Detroit | 20 | 20 | Detroit | 0 | 40 |
| NY Giants | NY Jets | 26 | 20 | NY Giants | 6 | 46 |
| Kansas City | Miami | 17 | 20 | Miami | 3 | 37 |
| Washington | Carolina | 17 | 17 | Carolina | 0 | 34 |
| Jacksonville | Tampa Bay | 17 | 23 | Tampa Bay | 6 | 40 |
| New Orleans | Cincinnati | 24 | 27 | Cincinnati | 3 | 51 |
| Pittsburgh | Minnesota | 20 | 20 | Pittsburgh | 0 | 40 |
| Baltimore | St. Louis | 17 | 20 | St. Louis | 3 | 37 |
| Arizona | Oakland | 20 | 20 | Arizona | 0 | 40 |
| Buffalo | Indianapolis | 20 | 27 | Indianapolis | 7 | 47 |
| Seattle | San Diego | 17 | 27 | San Diego | 10 | 44 |
Vegas line:
| Favorite | Line | O/U | Away | Home |
| Chicago | 3.0 | 37.0 | 17.0 | 20.0 |
| New England | 3.0 | 37.5 | 17.3 | 20.3 |
| Atlanta | 3.0 | 34.0 | 15.5 | 18.5 |
| Dallas | 3.5 | 40.0 | 18.3 | 21.8 |
| Denver | 3.0 | 37.5 | 17.3 | 20.3 |
| Detroit | 3.0 | 41.0 | 19.0 | 22.0 |
| NY Jets | 3.0 | 38.0 | 17.5 | 20.5 |
| Miami | 3.0 | 34.0 | 15.5 | 18.5 |
| Carolina | 3.0 | 36.0 | 16.5 | 19.5 |
| Jacksonville | 2.0 | 34.5 | 18.3 | 16.3 |
| New Orleans | 2.5 | 42.0 | 22.3 | 19.8 |
| Pittsburgh | 2.5 | 37.0 | 19.8 | 17.3 |
| St. Louis | 2.0 | 35.5 | 16.8 | 18.8 |
| Oakland | 3.0 | 37.0 | 17.0 | 20.0 |
| Indianapolis | 3.5 | 37.0 | 16.8 | 20.3 |
| San Diego | 3.5 | 39.5 | 18.0 | 21.5 |
Bets:
Chicago Over
New England Over
Tennessee Over
Dallas Over
Green Bay Over
Cleveland Under
NY Giants Over
Over on Kansas City vs Miami
Washington Under
Tampa Bay Over
Cincinnati Over
Minnesota Over
St. Louis Over
Arizona Over
Indianapolis Over
San Diego Over
Good bets:
The computer didn’t flag any good bets. If I was crazy and putting money on the preseason my wallet would thank the computer today.
Outcome:
| Winner | Away | Home | Bet | O/U |
| San Francisco | 37 | 30 | San Francisco | Over |
| Philadelphia | 27 | 17 | Philadelphia | Over |
| Atlanta | 3 | 17 | Atlanta | Under |
| Dallas | 22 | 23 | Houston | Over |
| Green Bay | 27 | 24 | Green Bay | Over |
| Detroit | 6 | 26 | Detroit | Under |
| NY Jets | 7 | 10 | Push | Under |
| Miami | 0 | 24 | Miami | Under |
| Carolina | 3 | 47 | Carolina | Over |
| Jacksonville | 23 | 17 | Jacksonville | Over |
| New Orleans | 13 | 0 | New Orleans | Under |
| Pittsburgh | 12 | 10 | Minnesota | Under |
| St. Louis | 10 | 24 | St. Louis | Under |
| Arizona | 24 | 0 | Arizona | Under |
| Buffalo | 20 | 7 | Buffalo | Under |
| San Diego | 17 | 18 | Seattle | Under |
I picked 9 of these right, maybe a good sign. And NOW I know why they hate Indy…
Preseason Week 4
My predictions:
| Away | Home | Favorite | Line | O/U | ||
| Detroit | Buffalo | 17 | 24 | Buffalo | 7 | 41 |
| NY Jets | Philadelphia | 17 | 20 | Philadelphia | 3 | 37 |
| Atlanta | Baltimore | 20 | 20 | Baltimore | 0 | 40 |
| St. Louis | Kansas City | 20 | 26 | Kansas City | 6 | 46 |
| New England | NY Giants | 24 | 17 | New England | 7 | 41 |
| Cincinnati | Indianapolis | 20 | 27 | Indianapolis | 7 | 47 |
| Jacksonville | Washington | 17 | 24 | Washington | 7 | 41 |
| Carolina | Pittsburgh | 17 | 23 | Pittsburgh | 6 | 40 |
| Tennessee | Green Bay | 20 | 20 | Green Bay | 0 | 40 |
| Chicago | Cleveland | 20 | 17 | Chicago | 3 | 37 |
| Minnesota | Dallas | 17 | 24 | Dallas | 7 | 41 |
| Miami | New Orleans | 20 | 17 | Miami | 3 | 37 |
| Tampa Bay | Houston | 20 | 23 | Houston | 3 | 43 |
| Denver | Arizona | 26 | 27 | Arizona | 1 | 53 |
| San Diego | San Francisco | 27 | 17 | San Diego | 10 | 44 |
| Oakland | Seattle | 16 | 27 | Seattle | 11 | 43 |
Vegas line:
| Favorite | Line | O/U | Away | Home |
| Buffalo | 3.0 | 33.5 | 15.3 | 18.3 |
| Philadelphia | 3.0 | 35.5 | 16.3 | 19.3 |
| Baltimore | 2.5 | 33.0 | 15.3 | 17.8 |
| Kansas City | 5.0 | 34.0 | 14.5 | 19.5 |
| NY Giants | 2.5 | 35.0 | 16.3 | 18.8 |
| Indianapolis | 3.0 | 34.5 | 15.8 | 18.8 |
| Washington | 3.0 | 34.0 | 15.5 | 18.5 |
| Pittsburgh | 3.5 | 35.0 | 15.8 | 19.3 |
| Tennessee | 6.5 | 36.0 | 21.3 | 14.8 |
| Cleveland | 3.0 | 38.0 | 17.5 | 20.5 |
| Dallas | 3.0 | 34.0 | 15.5 | 18.5 |
| New Orleans | 1.0 | 35.0 | 17.0 | 18.0 |
| Houston | 0.0 | 36.5 | 18.3 | 18.3 |
| Arizona | 3.0 | 37.5 | 17.3 | 20.3 |
| San Francisco | 2.5 | 35.5 | 16.5 | 19.0 |
| Seattle | 3.0 | 36.0 | 16.5 | 19.5 |
Bets:
Buffalo Over
Over on NY Jets vs Philadelphia
Atlanta Over
Kansas City
New England Over
Indianapolis Over
Washington Over
Pittsburgh Over
Green Bay Over
Chicago Under
Dallas Over
Miami Over
Houston Over
Denver Over
San Diego Over
Seattle Over
Good bets:
Over on St. Louis vs Kansas City
Over on Cincinnati vs Indianapolis
Over on Denver vs Arizona
San Diego (assuming their offense made the plane…) will stomp San Fran and cover the spread
Week 1
My predictions:
| Away | Home | Favorite | Line | O/U | ||
| Washington | NY Giants | 17 | 20 | NY Giants | 3 | 37 |
| NY Jets | Miami | 17 | 17 | Miami | 0 | 34 |
| Detroit | Atlanta | 20 | 27 | Atlanta | 7 | 47 |
| Jacksonville | Tennessee | 24 | 23 | Jacksonville | 1 | 47 |
| Tampa Bay | New Orleans | 17 | 17 | New Orleans | 0 | 34 |
| St. Louis | Philadelphia | 20 | 20 | Philadelphia | 0 | 40 |
| Houston | Pittsburgh | 17 | 24 | Pittsburgh | 7 | 41 |
| Kansas City | New England | 17 | 27 | New England | 10 | 44 |
| Cincinnati | Baltimore | 20 | 20 | Baltimore | 0 | 40 |
| Seattle | Buffalo | 24 | 20 | Seattle | 4 | 44 |
| Dallas | Cleveland | 27 | 17 | Dallas | 10 | 44 |
| Arizona | San Francisco | 20 | 20 | San Francisco | 0 | 40 |
| Carolina | San Diego | 20 | 24 | San Diego | 4 | 44 |
| Chicago | Indianapolis | 20 | 24 | Indianapolis | 4 | 44 |
| Minnesota | Green Bay | 17 | 20 | Green Bay | 3 | 37 |
| Denver | Oakland | 20 | 17 | Denver | 3 | 37 |
That’s as far in the future as I can get. After the real games start, the real work begins, my computer models update based on the outcome of week one. I don’t update them with the preseason games cause I think they will skew the model. There are three teams I expect the model to be wrong about, Green Bay will come out less than predictions because they are missing Favre. Seriously, what were they thinking? “Um no thanks, we don’t want the greatest quarterback of all time to play for us this year.”
Likewise, the Jets will be better than predictions, “Welcome to the team, Mr. Greatest QB Ever!” Even if he doesn’t start, just having his brain over there on their sidelines will improve the team.
And I think Atlanta will be better than predictions, they’ve had time to get over losing Vick. They won’t be great, cause they don’t have a QB as good as Vick, but they will play better cause they begin to realize that the QB is not the only player that makes a team.
E.W.
I started writing this post weeks ago. It is incredibly hard to put a spreadsheet into a blog. Figured it would be easy…