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2009 NFL Week 4 – Spring’s Picks

Ok,so it’s Week 4 and we’re learning a lot about each team. New England made some very bad choices in not renewing a few contracts and making trades of some key players. The Lions might be able to break their label as the worst team in the NFL and my poor Skins, well it’s looking like they’ve forgotten how to play ball. For now, here’s Week 4s picks:

Week 4
Sun, Oct 04  Pick
TB @ WAS  Washington
BAL @ NE  Baltimore
TEN @ JAC  Jacksonville
OAK @ HOU  Houston
CIN @ CLE  Cincinnati
SEA @ IND  Indianapolis
NYG @ KC  NY Giants
DET @ CHI  Chicago
BUF @ MIA  Miami
NYJ @ NO  New Orleans
STL @ SF  San Francisco
DAL @ DEN  Denver
SD @ PIT  Pittsburgh
Mon, Oct 05
GB @ MIN  Minnesota

Byes: Cardinals, Falcons, Panthers, Eagles


We’ll see how it turns out.

This entry was posted on September 29, 2009, in Sports - NFL.

2009 NFL Week 3 – Spring’s Results

All in all it wasn’t a bad week, though there were a few surprises. Who would have thought Pittsburgh would have lost. It might have been just by a field goal, but they’re better than the score proposes and should never have gotten into that dilemma. I can’t believe my Skins lost against the Lions, breaking their 19 game losing streak. And I had to sit by and watch my Titans self destruct as well. Had I kept up on the news of the games I would have picked the Eagles and Vick’s debut over Kansas City.

But even with those issues, I didn’t have a bad week and still beat SirEvil’s computer picks. Yes!

Week 3
Sun, Sep 27  Pick  Score
KC @ PHI  Kansas City  L – 13 / 34
WAS @ DET  Washington  L – 14 / 19
GB @ STL  St. Louis  L – 36 / 17
SF @ MIN  Minnesota  W – 24 / 27
TEN @ NYJ  NY Jets  W – 17 / 24
ATL @ NE  New England  W – 10 / 26
JAC @ HOU  Jacksonville  W – 31 / 24
NYG @ TB  NY Giants  W – 24 / 0
CLE @ BAL  Baltimore  W – 3 / 34
CHI @ SEA  Chicago  W – 25 / 19
NO @ BUF  New Orleans  W – 27 – 7
MIA @ SD  Miami  L – 13 / 23
DEN @ OAK  Denver  W – 23 / 3
PIT @ CIN  Pittsburgh  L – 20 / 23
IND @ ARI  Indianapolis  W – 31 / 10
Mon, Sep 28
CAR @ DAL  Dallas  W – 21 / 7
Results: W = 11 / L = 5 of 16
This entry was posted on September 29, 2009, in Sports - NFL.

Football Predictions Past and Present

Here are my week 1 picks:

Away Home Score Winner
Tennessee Pittsburgh 18 21 Pittsburgh
Miami Atlanta 21 20 Miami
Kansas City Baltimore 14 21 Baltimore
Philadelphia Carolina 20 19 Philadelphia
Minnesota Cleveland 20 20 Minnesota
NY Jets Houston 19 23 Houston
Detroit New Orleans 21 28 New Orleans
Jacksonville Indianapolis 19 24 Indianapolis
Dallas Tampa Bay 19 20 Tampa Bay
Denver Cincinnati 21 23 Cincinnati
Washington NY Giants 20 22 NY Giants
San Francisco Arizona 20 26 Arizona
St. Louis Seattle 16 25 Seattle
Chicago Green Bay 19 21 Green Bay
Buffalo New England 16 25 New England
San Diego Oakland 24 18 San Diego

I wrote a new game simulator, the spreadsheet based one was painfully slow, took nearly 30 minutes to get answers out of it. Now it takes about 5 minutes to simulate over a million games. It got 11 this week, so I’m happy with it.

Week 2:

Away Home Score Winner
Carolina Atlanta 21 21 Atlanta
St. Louis Washington 16 22 Washington
Houston Tennessee 18 23 Tennessee
Cincinnati Green Bay 19 23 Green Bay
Oakland Kansas City 20 21 Kansas City
New England NY Jets 25 20 New England
New Orleans Philadelphia 20 24 Philadelphia
Arizona Jacksonville 21 24 Jacksonville
Minnesota Detroit 24 20 Minnesota
Tampa Bay Buffalo 20 21 Buffalo
Seattle San Francisco 20 21 San Francisco
Pittsburgh Chicago 22 21 Pittsburgh
Cleveland Denver 20 23 Denver
Baltimore San Diego 17 23 San Diego
NY Giants Dallas 22 23 Dallas
Indianapolis Miami 22 18 Indianapolis

Got 7 games… ouch. I’m beginning to wonder if I passed stats II or not now. I recall having a headache, but not much else.

Anyway, here are the week 3 picks:

Away Home Score Winner
Cleveland Baltimore 16 23 Baltimore
Washington Detroit 24 21 Washington
Atlanta New England 17 25 New England
San Francisco Minnesota 18 23 Minnesota
Tennessee NY Jets 19 18 Tennessee
Kansas City Philadelphia 17 23 Philadelphia
Green Bay St. Louis 27 21 Green Bay
NY Giants Tampa Bay 20 21 Tampa Bay
Jacksonville Houston 21 24 Houston
New Orleans Buffalo 23 21 New Orleans
Chicago Seattle 18 21 Seattle
Pittsburgh Cincinnati 20 17 Pittsburgh
Miami San Diego 18 24 San Diego
Denver Oakland 21 20 Denver
Indianapolis Arizona 23 24 Arizona
Carolina Dallas 21 24 Dallas

The computer has flagged no good bets for all three weeks so far, which makes me think that the rabid crazy fans who always bet big on Detroit don’t have money for Vegas lately. As a result, only pros show up to bet.

The better modeling program lets me do something I wanted to do before, predict the playoffs. So here it is:

Away Home Scores Winner
Wild Card Games
AFC
NY Jets San Diego 18 24 San Diego
Baltimore Indianapolis 18 23 Indianapolis
NFC
Dallas NY Giants 22 22 NY Giants
Philadelphia Arizona 23 24 Arizona
Division
AFC
San Diego Pittsburgh 18 23 Pittsburgh
Indianapolis New England 20 25 New England
NFC
NY Giants New Orleans 23 24 New Orleans
Arizona Green Bay 21 25 Green Bay
Conference
AFC
New England Pittsburgh 22 21 New England
NFC
Green Bay New Orleans 24 25 New Orleans
Superbowl
New England New Orleans 26 23 New England
New Orleans New England 20 25 New England

So far for the first three weeks the Pats win the Superbowl. I show this game twice cause it matters who has home field in the calculation, and by default there isn’t a home field in the Superbowl.

E.W.

Statistics is the art of using massive computer resources to make predictions so non-statisticians can say, “I told you so.”

This entry was posted on September 27, 2009, in Sports - NFL.

2009 NFL Week 3 – Spring’s Picks

Getting Ready For Week 3

So Week 3 begins and hopefully we’re out of the Twilight Zone. The Eagles will still be struggling without McNab. Tennessee is still feeling the sting of their loss last week going into NY where the Jets have home field advantage. While the Jets are flying high from their win over New England. I think this is the emotional game of the week and the Jets will have the advantage. New England has something to prove in Atlanta and I think they’ll do just that. Miami should easily take San Diego in California. And Indianapolis proved to themselves last week that they can come back and win on someone else’s home field, so I expect they’ll take Arizona with relative ease. Though it may not be as easy as they think, Arizona is showing they have some skills this year.

On Monday, I expect Dallas to come back on their home field angry and feeling they have something to prove. I love that they lost their home opener in the “Palace in Dallas” that Jerry built to his own ego. But I think that sting of defeat on their home opener, and in their new stadium with all it’s hype; well over hype if you ask me; has their blood boiling and they’ll take Carolina.

So here’s the picks for the week from me. Hopefully it’s not a continuation of last weeks miserable picks.

Week 3
Sun, Sep 27  Pick
KC @ PHI  Kansas City
WAS @ DET  Washington
GB @ STL  St. Louis
SF @ MIN  Minnesota
TEN @ NYJ  NY Jets
ATL @ NE  New England
JAC @ HOU  Jacksonville
NYG @ TB  NY Giants
CLE @ BAL  Baltimore
CHI @ SEA  Chicago
NO @ BUF   New Orleans
MIA @ SD  Miami
DEN @ OAK  Denver
PIT @ CIN  Pittsburgh
IND @ ARI  Indianapolis
Mon, Sep 28
CAR @ DAL  Dallas
This entry was posted on September 25, 2009, in Sports - NFL.

Week 2 – NFL Results

Spring’s Week 2 Results

Ok So Week 2 sucked! Or at the very least the NFL fell into the Twilight Zone for 2 days. How in the world did Houston beat Tennessee, or Arizona take Jacksonville. Without McNab I know Philly was a long shot, but hey we all make wishes sometimes. But come on Pittsburgh losing to Chicago? Say what?! This same Twilight Zone thing happened last year during Week 2. It’s an odd phenomena. The final result for the week was 7 out of 16. I don’t care much for those less than 50% weekends. Let’s go back to Week 1, I liked that one.

Week 2
Sun, Sep 20  Pick  Score
HOU @ TEN  Tennessee  L – 34 / 31
CAR @ ATL  Atlanta  W – 20 / 28
MIN @ DET  Minnesota  W – 27 / 13
ARI @ JAC  Jacksonville  L – 31 / 17
OAK @ KC  Kansas City  L – 13 / 10
NO @ PHI  Philadelphia  L – 48 / 22
CIN @ GB  Green Bay  L – 31 / 24
STL @ WAS  Washington  W – 7 / 9
NE @ NYJ  New England  L – 9 / 16
TB @ BUF  Tampa Bay  L – 20 / 33
SEA @ SF  Seattle  L – 10 / 23
BAL @ SD  Baltimore  W – 31 / 26
PIT @ CHI  Pittsburgh  L – 14 / 17
CLE @ DEN  Denver  W – 6 / 27
NYG @ DAL  NY Giants  W – 33 / 31
Mon, Sep 21
IND @ MIA  Indianapolis  W – 27 / 23
Results: W = 7 / L = 9 of 16
This entry was posted on September 25, 2009, in Sports - NFL.

2009 NFL Week 2 Picks

Getting Ready For Week 2 – Spring’s Picks

Even though the Eagles have probably lost McNabb for Sunday, I think overall they’re a great team that will pick up the slack with their 2nd string quarterback. I also hate going against SirEvil’s team, but I think the Panthers had their hats handed to them last Sunday and they’ll still be licking their wounds. Especially since they’re playing IN Atlanta. We’ll see how my thoughts pan out.

Week 2
Sun, Sep 20  Pick
HOU @ TEN  Tennessee
CAR @ ATL  Atlanta
MIN @ DET  Minnesota
ARI @ JAC  Jacksonville
OAK @ KC  Kansas City
NO @ PHI  Philadelphia
CIN @ GB  Green Bay
STL @ WAS   Washington
NE @ NYJ  New England
TB @ BUF  Tampa Bay
SEA @ SF  Seattle
BAL @ SD  Baltimore
PIT @ CHI  Pittsburgh
CLE @ DEN  Denver
NYG @ DAL  NY Giants
Mon, Sep 21
IND @ MIA  Indianapolis
This entry was posted on September 15, 2009, in Sports - NFL.

2009 NASCAR Rock-n-Roll 400 Weekend

This weekend Nascar held the Rock-n-Roll 400 at Richmond. And of course we were there. We had several memorable events over the 2 days.

Starting with Friday and the NNS Virginia 529 250.
We began our tailgating and promptly went shopping. On the way into the Fanway, we found the Scotts Bird Seed display. Complete with one of Carl Edwards back up cars. As we were taking pictures of the Prince in front of the car he asked if he could sit in it. The very kind gentleman monitoring the car snuck the kid into the seat and I quickly snapped a picture. It was very nice of the guy to let the Prince sit in the car, especially since he could have gotten in trouble for doing so. The kid of course was very excited and now wanted Carl to win the race.

True to his “voodoo child” form, Carl did win the race that night. In the same paint scheme as the one the Prince was allowed to sit in. His magical streak continues.

We also took a visit of the Sprint Corner, which came with a 3-D Nascar Driving Simulator Experience. Of course we had to try our hand at racing around Daytona. As the race started SirEvil in his #88 National Guard Chevy was winning. I was some where back in the pack in my #14 Office Depot Chevy. But I had a secret weapon. The Princely “voodoo child” who didn’t want to drive his own car, was standing behind ME. On lap 4 (5 laps total) someone bumped the #88 from behind and SirEvil lost control of the car. He hit the wall and spun out through the grass.

Although he got his car under control and finished the last lap, I came in 3rd, behind a phenomenal competitor in 1st and the computer in 2nd. SirEvil finished in 8th. Much like Jr.’s night on Saturday. Sadly.

The race was great, and though it would have been nice seeing Denny win the night; it wasn’t to be. Carl made a pass in the pits over Kevin Harvick and came out first after a late race caution. He held that lead and won the Nationwide Race at Richmond!  Woohoo.

We made it home in record time, getting in the door around 11:30pm. But we were back up at 7am and headed back to the track. We still got a great spot for Saturday’s tailgating. After Friday’s events we were content to put our feet up, grill and chill. We met some of our tailgating neighbors, laughed and shared stories and food. Later in the day we watched some of our neighbors play Ladder Ball.

But off in the distance, up the hill in the parking lot a group of 20somethings were also partying. Now these kids stand out because the guys, who were standing in the bed of the truck that was jacked up about 6ft off the ground were ..um.. HOT. One in particular very well built shirtless lad caught the attention of one of our neighbors playing Ladder Ball. And she was continually distracted when it was her turn.

At some point I made a comment she should get her camera. To which she responded “Yeah, go get my camera” to one of her friends. Oh now I just couldn’t let this opportunity go. I walked up the hill and petitioned the young man.

“There’s an elementary teacher down here who can’t take her eyes off of you. I was wondering if you would be so kind as to come on down and embarrass the hell out of her by having your picture taken with her?”

“Yes Ma’am” he replied and off the back of the truck he jumped. I discovered his name was Matt and he was from Virginia. As we walked back down the short distance to our tailgating homestead, sure enough our new little friend blushed every shade of red known to mankind. I introduced Matt to (today I can’t remember her name, we’ll call her Amy), and he promptly put his arm around her and posed for a picture. He was extremely gracious and a wonderfully good sport about the whole thing. Plus our little adventure boasted his “standing” with his friends, no doubt! After a few minutes his friends began calling him back. He gave me a hug, I said thanks and he wandered off up the hill.

We discovered later that Amy is going through a bad breakup/divorce and she has been under a lot of stress and depression as a result. Her friends came up to thank us, letting us know she needed that. I’ve learned now that I’m pushing 50, life is short and opportunities to have fun don’t always come around every day. Seize the day and have some fun!

So off we went to the race. After a bright sunny day, the race is delayed by a short shower. But thankfully it was short and we still had the race. Mark Martin had the pole, but he didn’t keep the lead for long. The night belonged to Virginia’s own Denny Hamlin. We’re so glad he won. He deserved it!  It would have been nice had Tony not gotten overly aggressive at the beginning of the race and gone 3 wide around turn 3. He ended up spinning and going a lap down from the get go, causing the 1st caution. Thankfully he came back and had a decent finish, ending the race in 17th.

The next big thing for us to watch was where Ryan Newman finished. He had to finish 16th or better to ensure a spot in the Chase. He constantly went down and up in the standings as his position changed on the track. I was worried for the little Prince, he would be so disappointed if his guy didn’t make it into the Chase. Thankfully, Ryan and crew pulled out a great finish, ending the race in 10th. Woohoo!

The last thing for us to watch was Brian Vickers and Kyle Busch. A few years ago we were bashing Vickers for being such a poor racer. He was continually hitting the wall or other cars, causing cautions and taking out our guys because he a wreck waiting to happen. Now here we are, years later, pulling for Vickers to make the Chase ahead of whiney Kyle. The points changed as quickly as their positions on the track changed. Kyle was in on one lap, and Brian was in on the next lap. They went back and forth the entire night. Until the last caution when Brian’s crew got him out in front of Kyle. Brian is in the Chase, Kyle is not. Karma will get you every time; I hope Kyle has learned that lesson now.

So our boys over all are split; 2 in and 2 out. Their standings from the “regular season”

Our Guy Points
Position
Total
Points
Points
Back
Tony 1st 3806
Ryan 9th 3272 -534
Joey 14th 2705 -1101
Dale Jr. 21st 2628 -1178

And now we move into the Chase with the point reset.

Rank Driver Points Behind
1 Mark Martin 5040 Leader
2 Tony Stewart 5030 -10
3 Jimmie Johnson 5030 -10
4 Denny Hamlin 5020 -20
5 Kasey Kahne 5020 -20
6 Jeff Gordon 5010 -30
7 Kurt Busch 5010 -30
8 Brian Vickers 5010 -30
9 Carl Edwards 5000 -40
10 Ryan Newman 5000 -40
11 Juan Montoya 5000 -40
12 Greg Biffle 5000 -40

I’m pulling for my Tony to be the next Owner/Driver to win a Championship. He can do it, he has the skills, talent and great team behind him to do it. So let’s go Tony!

2009 NFL Week 1 Picks / Results

Spring’s Week 1 Picks

SirEvil and I started a little competition over NFL picks. Here was my Week 1 picks. I won 12 of the 16 games played.

Week1
Thu Sep 10  Pick  Score
TEN @ PIT   Pittsburgh  W – 16 / 13 OT
Sun, Sep 13
JAC @ IND  Indianapolis  W – 12 / 14
DET @ NO  New Orleans  W – 27/ 45
PHI @ CAR  Carolina  L – 38 – 10
DAL @ TB  Tampa Bay  L – 34 / 21
NYJ @ HOU  NY Jets  W – 24 / 7
KC @ BAL  Baltimore  W – 24 / 38
DEN @ CIN  Denver  W – 12 / 7
MIN @ CLE  Minnesota  W – 34 / 20
MIA @ ATL  Atlanta  W – 7 / 19
WAS @ NYG  NY Giants  W – 17 / 23
SF @ ARI  Arizona  L – 20 / 16
STL @ SEA  St Louis  L – 0 / 28
CHI @ GB  Green Bay  W – 15 / 21
Mon, Sep 14
BUF @ NE  New England  W – 24 / 25
SD @ OAK  San Diego  W – 24 / 20
Results: W = 12 / L = 04 of 16
This entry was posted on September 15, 2009, in Sports - NFL.

Those Pesky Nascar Sponsor Commercials

Being NASCAR fans we watch a lot of races on TV. And along with those races are a lot of commercials. And in a lot of those commercials are Nascar drivers who promote the sponsors of their teams. Now we’ve seen way too many of these commercials and in our irritation we occasionally come up with our own ideas for the drivers. Here’s a just a few.

Commercial 1: HomeDepot; Joey Logano and Greg Zipadelli (Zippy)

Joey sleeping in a pair of HomeDepot #20 fire suit jammies, wakes up to the sound of hammers and saw motors. He rushes out into his living room and finds Zippy and his crew remodeling his home.

Joey: “Zippy what are you doing?” he asks with a little trepidation in his voice.

Zippy: “Getting you a win at Pocono.”

Joey: “Zippy that’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard you say.”

Zippy: “That’s what I used to think.”

The commercial flips to the #20 HomeDepot crossing the finish line first. As an announcer says “HomeDepot getting things done”.

—–

In the 2009 Season Jeff Burton is sponsored by Caterpillar. Early in the season, his Caterpillar car plowed through the grass knocking up a good deal of sod onto the front splitter. The commercial starts by showing this slide as an announcer says “Caterpillar all our equipment can plow through anything”. The commercial flips to Burton in his fire suit as he says “Ok that’s just not funny” as his crew is standing behind him giggling.

Charlotte – May 23, 2009 / Coca Cola 600

NASCAR goes to Charlotte NC in May for two of their biggest races. The first is the All-Star Race. This year that occurred on May 16th, which was a very special night for me personally. My guy, Tony Stewart #14 (OfficeDepot/OldSpice/Chevy) crossed the line for his first win as an Owner/Driver. Only the 2nd guy to do this since the All-Star Race began.

The second big race, The Coca Cola 600 was scheduled to occur on May 24th. But between these two weekends Charlotte advertises the wazzoo out of these events calling this time as SpeedWeek! Culminating with a city celebration in the streets of downtown Charlotte which they call SpeedStreet! Food, fun and come meet NASCAR drivers.

Ok, so I’ve never been to SpeedStreet. We’re going to Charlotte for a family wedding which will give us a chance to attend the festivities. The three of us don our favorite driver T-shirts. SirEvil wearing his #88 National Guard shirt for Jr. I grabbed my Tony #14 shirt, and the little kid is wearing his brown Army #39 Ryan shirt. We topped that off with our matching straw Nascar hats, with our event and driver pins stuck all over them. I’m looking forward to party and excited to go…… Until we actually get there.

Where were the Driver booths and merchandise? We walked to every corner, nook, an section of “speedstreet” and all we saw were Sponsor booths, giving away free stuff. The little kid (who is about to turn 6) was run over 3 times by the rudest people trying to grab the free stuff. A very large black woman knocked him to the ground and about stepped on him just so she could grab 2 boxes of free Reynolds wrap. All we were trying to do is look at the cup car sitting next to the free wrap. You know…enjoy the real reason for this party in the first place, the cars, the drivers, the fan excitement! I was SO pissed!

We walked down a big hill to a section where we were told the merchandise trailers were. The “official” guide didn’t have a clue what we were talking about, because there was nothing in that section except a Chevy display, Jr.’s car and a few games for kids. Back up the hill to the one and only merchandise booth we saw. I walk up to the table and say to the sales guy “I’m looking for a Tony 1st win shirt”. His response? “Tony who?”. WHAT?! I step back, point to the shirt I”M WEARING and reply “Tony who?”. A sales guy next to him says “I thought it was a 1st win for all of them”. The 1st sales guy says “We have other shirts for him” pointing to my shirt. I answered “I wouldn’t buy dog shit from you now.” and walked away.

First rule of sales “Know your audience!”. I was so disgusted with the entire atmosphere and attitude of not only the organizers, and some of the booth workers, but of the attendees as well. Decked out in all our NASCAR gear, we saw (and yes I counted) only 23 other people with race shirts. I walked up  to one guy, shook his hand and said you’re one of the only other people we’ve seen who is wearing a driver shirt. And then we left.

I don’t want to make it sound like we didn’t see and talk to some nice people. We did. But they were few and far between. The most disappointing part of the entire experience was what wasn’t there! Never again will we go back. What a waste of time.